Earlier this week, I wrote that Dante Moore’s draft stock had taken a hit after Oregon’s lopsided loss to Indiana in the College Football Playoff. Even then, the possibility always existed that Moore could return to Eugene for another season. Still, I was clear: if I were Moore, I would have entered the NFL Draft.
Apparently, Moore could care less about what I would do if I were him (joking, of course).
On Wednesday, Moore announced on SportsCenter that he will return to Oregon for the 2026 season, passing on what would have been a nearly guaranteed $50 million payday. To put that number in perspective, last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Travis Hunter, received $46.65 million guaranteed.
This decision comes despite Moore being widely viewed as the consensus No. 2 overall pick, and for some analysts, including Todd McShay, even mocked as the No. 1 selection.
As I’ve mentioned before, what once looked like a deep and promising quarterback class featuring Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar, Arch Manning, and Lenorris Sellers has quickly turned into one of the shallowest groups in recent memory. Even with some of those names still technically eligible, quarterbacks like Allar, Garrett Nussmeier, and Klubnik have all seen their stock fall dramatically. They are now commonly viewed as third, fourth, or even fifth round developmental or backup options.
If those players had entered the draft last year, every one of them would have been in serious first round conversations. That reality highlights the risk of returning to school.
More time in college means more time for scouts and evaluators to dissect your game, magnify flaws, and question what you do not do well. Add in the current landscape of college football, where rosters change rapidly due to transfers and NIL movement, and the risk grows. Weapons you relied on one season may be gone the next, forcing you to rebuild chemistry and trust with new teammates. That can be either a blessing or a curse, depending on offseason departures and additions.
Then there is the biggest risk of all: injury. Making it through a college football season healthy is never guaranteed. One awkward scramble or one unnecessary hit could turn a sure first round quarterback into a second or third round question mark.
But there are real benefits to staying.
First, the money. Across college football, more elite players are choosing to stay an extra year. The idea of mastering your craft, being the guy on campus, winning games, and still earning millions without the relentless pressure placed on NFL rookies is increasingly appealing. Yes, Moore is saying no to roughly $50 million right now, but he is also saying yes to slightly less money and an elite lifestyle for at least one more year.
Second, Moore gets a chance to erase all doubt. Even as a consensus top two pick, the narrative around him was going to be consistent: “tools over experience” and “a quarterback who could benefit from another year in college.” Returning allows him to address those critiques head on.
Yes, next year’s quarterback class could be loaded on paper. But remember, this year’s class was supposed to be loaded too, and it fell apart quickly. Things change fast.
And finally, there is an unspoken benefit that cannot be ignored.
By staying in school, Moore avoids the risk of being drafted by the New York Jets, who currently hold the No. 2 pick. Fair or not, the Jets have developed a reputation in the eyes of some evaluators as a quarterback graveyard, often criticized for instability and organizational dysfunction. A “no” to the draft this year is effectively a “no” to New York. I do not believe this decision was made with the Jets specifically in mind, but if that ever came out, it would not shock me.
Moore’s announcement immediately sends ripple effects through the draft. The player who stands to benefit the most is Ty Simpson, who declared earlier this week. How far Simpson rises remains to be seen. Teams at the top may explore trading down to acquire him at value, or a quarterback needy franchise could decide he is worth selecting as high as No. 2 depending on how his pre draft process unfolds.
Either way, this decision just shook up the entire draft landscape.
And if the appeal by Trinidad Chambliss is denied, do not be surprised if another seismic shift follows in the mock draft world.
